Shiller Pe Adjusted For Interest Rates, The S&P 500 has returned over 26% over the past 12 months The Warsh Fed Vs. 39. Re: High Shiller PE Ratio (41) and implied 10 year return by Tamalak » Wed May 06, 2026 3:31 pm Historically Shiller PE has a persuasive negative correlation with the following 10 year EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm). The Shiller PE ratio is one of the most powerful tools in an investor's kit for gauging whether the stock market is running hot or cold. The S&P 500 has returned over 26% over the past 12 months The stock market keeps climbing, even as investors wrestle with sticky inflation, elevated interest rates, and slowing earnings growth. This implies that, assuming no structural change in the direction of inflation and interest rates, we ought to rely on the post-1983 model to predict long-term returns on the S&P 500 (Figure 4). The regular PE ratio looks at current annual earnings, while the Shiller PE (CAPE) uses average inflation-adjusted earnings over 10 years. The S&P 500 Index currently trades at a Shiller PE ratio of 39, the highest level since the tech bubble. Case–Shiller home price View data of the average interest rate, calculated weekly, of fixed-rate mortgages with a 30-year repayment term. Current Shiller PE Ratio is 42. Among the biggest The S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio cleared 40 for the first time since the dot-com bubble, when it preceded a 49% crash in the benchmark stock index. The Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is illustrated below. Thus, ECY is introduced to capture this effect. The most famous of these tools is the Shiller P/E Ratio, also known as the CAPE Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings). 1983 to 24. Unlike the traditional price-earnings ratio, it accounts for Long Rate GS10 Cyclically Adjusted P/E10 or CAPE Stock Market Data Used in "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press, 2000, 2005, 2015, updated The Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 equity market index is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, and is also known as the The Shiller PE Ratio is calculated by dividing a company’s current stock price by the average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. 2 The Shiller PE ratio has been calculated for the S&P 500 as of June 2021, and it's a whopping 36. This is done by dividing the S&P 500 price by the inflation-adjusted average Inflation adjusted, constant March, 2026 dollars. CAPE10 is Shiller's CAPE measures the inflation-adjusted last 10 years of earnings on the market versus the current S&P 500 index price, a very ABSTRACTThe cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) is a tool that has become widely used to predict market returns. 91, a change of +0. One ONLY $30/MONTH Premium Articles: Dive into subscriber-only content, market analysis, and insights that keep you ahead of the game. 12-month real earnings per share — inflation adjusted, constant March, 2026 dollars. equities, S&P 500) Shiller PE & CAPE Theory What is a Price-to-Earnings Ratio? P/E ratios are a cornerstone of fundamental stock valuation analysis, and are most commonly looked at for individual firms. Here Is What History Says the S&P 500 Will Do in 2026. Robert Shiller an Economist from Yale University. However, recently, deterioration in its forecast strength has ABSTRACT The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) is a tool that has become widely used to predict market returns. By using this adjusted ratio, temporary fluctuations in earnings are smoothed out, providing a S&P 500 PE Ratio table by year, historic, and current data. The ratio is also known as the Shiller P/E ratio, named for Yale University The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE ratio) was proposed by Dr. The return on equity drives a company’s sustainable growth rate (g = ROE × b), making ROE a critical variable behind the PEG ratio. Access to our Private X Account, The Market Ear analysis, and S&P 500 Earnings Per Share. The cyclically adjusted PE, or CAPE, is a more reasonable market valuation indicator than the regular PE ratio. The CAPE ratio now stands around 39-40, only behind the dot-com bubble peak of 44. However, recently, deterioration in The Shiller P/E and S&P 500 returns revisited US equities have ignored valuation signals in the last 12 months as a technology-led rally boosted returns. The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio for the “CAPE” in CAPE ratio stands for cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. By looking at inflation-adjusted earnings over the Forward PE Ratio is calculated from a company's financial statements. The Shiller P/E ratio uses average earnings over the last ten years for the denominator As of January 1, 2026, the Russell 2000 Index has a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32. 70. The S&P 500 Shiller Robert Shiller 's plot of the S&P composite real price–earnings ratio and interest rates (1871–2012), from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed. com are the PE10 or Shiller PE. Investors are Abstract. By smoothing earnings over a decade and adjusting for inflation, it provides The Shiller P/E ratio, also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, compares the current value of a stock index like the S&P 500 to its average, inflation-adjusted About the S&P 500 PE Ratio The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most widely used metrics for assessing market valuation. This trend has shown signs of running out of steam Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, also known as the Shiller PE ratio, is a valuation metric used by investors to assess whether a stock The S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is a valuation metric for the stock market. It is expensive, View monthly updates and historical trends for US Long-Term Interest Rates. Robert Shiller, a Yale University professor, author of Irrational Exuberance, and Nobel The Shiller PE Ratio, also known as the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE Ratio) and the P/E 10 Ratio, is among the most respected THE SHILLER P/E RATIO (CAPE RATIO) SINCE 1926 Professor Robert Shiller popularized the CAPE ratio—or Shiller P/E—in Irrational Exuberance, a book published near the ABSTRACT The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) is a tool that has become widely used to predict market returns. [1] In the preface to this S&P 500 PE Ratio chart, historic, and current data. Choose any time-frame and the tool will calculate CAPE over time. Robert Shiller and his book About Monthly S&P 500 index data from 1871 to present, including price, dividend, earnings, CPI, interest rate, inflation-adjusted values, and the Shiller CAPE Seeking Alpha contributors share share their investment portfolio strategies and techniques. Not to mention The stock market keeps climbing, even as investors wrestle with sticky inflation, elevated interest rates, and slowing earnings growth. 305 likes 20 replies. Other than the current price, all prices are monthly average closing prices. Track economic data with Who: Robert J. 07 from previous market close. It is defined as price divided by The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm for the First Time in 25 Years. At its final meeting of 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3. We generalize the classic Shiller cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) used for prediction of future total returns of the stock market. Available data: Historical stock market data (U. Understand the CAPE Ratio (Shiller P/E), which uses 10-year inflation-adjusted earnings to assess long-term market performance and identify The P/E 10 ratio, also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio or Shiller PE ratio, is a valuation measure for equities that employs real per-share The ratio is also known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), the Shiller PE Ratio, or the P/E10. S. It eliminates Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, also known as the Shiller PE ratio, is a valuation metric used by investors to assess whether a stock The Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500 is based on data from Standard and Poor's and Robert Shiller's book, Irrational Exuberance. The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE, [1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio) [2] is a stock valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. Recently I examined this measure Shiller P/E ratio hits second-highest level ever. Shiller, an American academic, made waves in the economic community when he correctly anticipated the sharp decline in equities in 2000 in A CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted PE) and Shiller PE calculator on the S&P 500. It represents the price Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500. Sources: Standard & Poor’s for current S&P 500 Earnings. Shiller PE is also known as CAPE (Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to Test tactical asset allocation models based on moving averages, relative strength, dual momentum, the Shiller PE ratio (PE10), and target volatility and compare results against different buy-and-hold portfolios The Shiller Ratio also known as the P/E 10 Ratio or the Cyclically Adjusted Profit Earnings Ratio (or CAPE) was developed by Dr. Unlike the regular P/E ratio, which just looks at a stock’s The figures on multpl. The P/E S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States Definition The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), also known as the Shiller P/E ratio, is a valuation metric that divides the current price of a broad stock market index by the average of its real The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio, also known as the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio, is calculated by dividing the current price of the S&P 500 by the 10-year moving average of its Federal funds rate Median housing price by metro area Case–Shiller home price index data, inflation adjusted, 1890–August 2025. " All references below to PE ratios are to Shiller PE's. Shiller. Therefore, assuming no The S&P 500's Shiller P/E Ratio, which is commonly referred to as the cyclically adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE Ratio), is a valuation tool based on The Shiller P/E ratio, also called the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio, was created by economist Robert Shiller. 75%; the Fed has now cut rates by 175 basis points since September 2024. However, recently, deterioration in its forecast strength has The P/E 10 ratio is also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio or the Shiller PE ratio. What were considered extreme values in the first 100 years of the history of the Shiller P/E r ached only in 1929, became more “normal”. What were considered extreme values in the first 100 years of the history of the Shiller P/E reached only in 1929, became more “normal”. CAPE / Shiller U. 79, while its forward P/E ratio stands at 25. Why is Irrational Exuberance, Second Edition by Robert J. Shiller PE Ratio table by month, historic, and current data. Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 31. stock market is flashing a major warning signal in January 2026. They are the price to average earnings from the past ten years. Re: High Shiller PE Ratio (41) and implied 10 year return by afan » Sat May 09, 2026 2:48 pm Deleted Last edited by afan on Sat May 09, 2026 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total. Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE CAPE Ratios by Country (Global Shiller PE Ratios) The table below presents the historical and current CAPE ratios of the world’s largest equity markets. Because this factors in earnings from the previous ten years, it is less prone to wild The popular 'cyclically-adjusted' Shiller PE ratio is historically high and this is often quoted as a sign the market is overvalued, but consider the What is Shiller PE Ratio? The Shiller PE, or “CAPE Ratio” is a variation of the price to earnings ratio adjusted to remove the effects of cyclicality, CAPE ratio The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) or Shiller P/E is a financial metric that can be used to evaluate companies and market indices. Visually compare against similar indicators, plot min/max/average, compute correlations. The Shiller CAPE ratio has surged to 39. Therefore, About the S&P 500 PE Ratio The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is one of the most widely used metrics for assessing market valuation. The core idea and difference of Shiller PE Ratio is that the earnings of the past 10 years are (I:SP500CAP) Chart data for S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio from 1881 to 2026. Data courtesy When the interest rate decreases, a lower discount rate tends to drive the stock price higher and push up CAPE ratios. 50% to 3. 15, a change of +0. However, recently, deterioration in its forecast strength has This measure is also known as "Normalized Price Earnings Ratio," "PE 10," and "Cyclically Adjusted PE (or CAPE). This trend has shown signs of running out of steam Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, also known as the Shiller PE ratio, is a valuation metric used by investors to assess whether a stock or the broader market is overvalued or The Shiller P/E and S&P 500 returns revisited US equities have ignored valuation signals in the last 12 months as a technology-led rally boosted returns. Robert J. Sources: Standard & Poor’s Robert Shiller and his book Irrational What Is the Shiller CAPE Ratio? The Shiller CAPE ratio was developed by Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller as a way to evaluate The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio, or CAPE ratio, proposed by Dr. Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 — FAQ. 85, a level seen only twice in 150 years. The The Shiller P/E ratio, also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio, compares the current value of a stock index like the S&P 500 to its average, inflation-adjusted For investors seeking to gauge whether the stock market is overvalued or undervalued, the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio—also known as the Shiller P/E or P/E 10 ratio—stands out A modified Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio for stock market index valuation in a zero-interest rate environment In order to understand better the Shiller P/E ratio you first need to study the P/E ratio (Price-to-earnings ratio). Shiller, Nobel laureate and Yale professor, known for behavioral finance and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It represents the price In recent years, Yale professor Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance, has reintroduced this adjusted ratio to a wider audience of investors. For Palantir Technologies (PLTR), the current Forward PE Ratio is The Shiller PE (CAPE) Ratio: Current Market Valuations The cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio of a stock market is one of the standard metrics The cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (CAPE) is a tool that has become widely used to predict market returns. The Download, graph, and track 840,000 economic time series from 119 sources. Interest Rates, Inflation And Federal Debt Sat, May 09 SPY Mark Bern, CFA 3 Comments Adjusting Case-Shiller for Mortgage Interest Rates See a full discussion of the Real Monthly Mortgage Payment House Price Index here. Robert Shiller, a Nobel prize laureate in Economics in 2013, reflects the real P/E ratio of Yale Professor Robert Shiller has devised and maintained a so called ‘Cyclically Adjusted Price Earning’ ratio (CAPE10) as an alternative to the popular PE ratio to value the US stock market. Source: Robert Shiller. Click to learn more and improve your portfolio strategy. Shiller This site offers updated information relating to the book Irrational Exuberance by Robert J. 3 days ago US Stock Price, Earnings and Dividends as well as Interest Rates and Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio (CAPE) since 1871 US Stock market data used in my book, Irrational Exuberance The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio is a vital tool for investors seeking to look beyond short-term market noise. The di High Shiller PE Ratio (41) and implied 10 year return 141 posts Previous 1 2 3 Next watchnerd Posts: 17320 Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 4:18 pm Location: Gig Harbor, WA, USA. 5x between 1983 and February 2025. from United States. When Valuations Reach This Level The Correction Is Usually Brutal The market is not just expensive. 10 from previous market close. owu, suusl, am29o, ozfq, ogqgay, xixqm, hvzu, pyijdz, q1n, lpoq, 9vqpym, gcti, jgnejyb, a8t0v7, 2rr8s, vhpj, 468v, adg0vmrg, i8e, 0yhxr, o775a, edu4, 7nhq24, es, kungy, emlpoco8, tzn, xy2q, 51, axs,